The Globes are back. I have questions.

Snow has fallen across the country, including my home of Richmond; the College Football playoff has been announced; the leaves have almost all fallen, and flannels are quickly falling out of fashion again; fall is turning into winter, and that means it’s time to do this nonsense again. Awards season is upon us.

The Golden Globes nominations were announced Monday morning, and it’s a fascinating list. I’ve written before about how the taste of this body has changed in recent years, especially as it’s grown both larger and more transparent in its membership. Now, the Globes seem past desperation to shed their starry, celeb-obsessed image of years past and have gravitated towards more cinephile-friendly fare. This ceremony remains the first meaningful piece of the gauntlet that makes up Awards Season, where campaigns are launched and mainstream awareness of Oscar hopefuls grows. Ahead of both January’s Globes ceremony and the Awards Season race, I’ve got some questions.

1. Is the Best Picture Race already over?

One Battle After Another, my favorite movie of the year so far and among the most acclaimed films of the entire decade, has been crushing the critics’ groups awards to this point, and leads all nominees here with 9 total – that’s about the most a single movie can get. The next test, of course, is what categories it can bring home wins in.

2. If One Battle is the favorite, who’s the challenger?

Based on the number of nominations and strong word of mouth, my eye does wander towards Sinners. There’s a good chance that’s my bias talking since I love that movie, but the most natural challenger would be the winner of Best Picture Drama, assuming One Battle wins Musical/Comedy. Following that logic, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value and Hamnet could also emerge given their festival success to this point.

3. Do Globes wins translate to Oscar wins?

I kinda wish I had crunched a whole bunch of numbers, and I’m sure that someone has, but last year’s results are worth revisiting. There are two Best Picture categories at the Globes, Drama and Musical/Comedy. Last Year, The Brutalist took home Drama as well as Director, while Emilia Perez took home Musical/Comedy along with a slew of other awards. Come Oscar night, Anora cleaned up with a grand haul, while Brutalist won Best Actor and a few others, and Emilia Perez won Best Supporting Actress and best song. Those films DID receive a ton of nominations each, so big nights at the Globes might point to a large nomination haul.

4. How international will this race be?

Of the 12 total Best Picture nominees at this year’s Golden Globes, 4 are foreign productions: It Was Just an Accident, which won the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival; The Secret Agent, whose lead Wagner Moura won the top acting prize at Cannes; No Other Choice, the latest from Park Chan-wook, a South Korean filmmaker who has a strong reputation with Western critics; and Sentimental Value, from Joachim Trier, whose last film The Worst Person in the World made some serious Oscar noise. I genuinely think all 4 have a chance to make it into the 10 Best Picture slots at the Oscars based on their pedigree of filmmaker and awards thus far, so I don’t think this is easy to discount, especially since these films are showing up in other categories here like acting or directing, which is very exciting. This means that the Non-English Language (Best International Feature at the Oscars) race is shaping up to be an absolute knife fight.

5. Where on earth can I watch these movies?

When in doubt, everything will be available for rent eventually. Most of the international features are being distributed through Neon, which usually means they make their way to Hulu.

6. Which Acting nominees are for real?

This is the question at the Globes every year. Lead Actor has two categories just like Best Picture, but Supporting Actor/Actress doesn’t. In taking Lead from 12 nominees here to 5 at the Oscars, the key lately has been making sure your movie shows up in Best Picture, running a hell of a campaign, or have given a hell of a performance.

7. Ok, what narratives should I look out for in the Acting categories?

I can only answer my own question with more questions:

• One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value each have two Supporting Actor/Actress nominations in either male or female; will both films get two Oscar nominations in the same category?

• Lee Byung-Hun got nominated for Lead Actor in the South Korean No Other Choice, could he make it to Oscar nomination morning?

• Leonardo DiCaprio is the Lead in the current Best Picture favorite, could he get a second Oscar if One Battle After Another wins?

• Is this the year of Chalamet? Of Plemmons? Both are beloved and have previously been nominated.

• Will Amy Madigan get Oscar nominated for her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons? She’s off to a decent start if so…

• Could Adam Sandler really be in the awards conversation in Supporting Actor? In a field with some other winners, could he just win?

• Between Die, My Love and If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, will a portrait of a mother struggling with reality and actively losing it get an Oscar nomination?

• Is Emma Stone gonna do this again in another Yorgos Lanthimos movie?

8. Is Wicked: For Good in trouble?

After getting far softer reviews than the first film last year, and missing out on Best Picture Musical/Comedy despite literally being a musical, yeah I don’t think it’s chances look too good for Oscar glory.

9. Richard Linklater has TWO movies nominated for Best Picture here – will they both stay relevant as we go?

Probably not, but Ethan Hawke’s performance might keep Blue Moon in the conversation. Talking about Linklater so much makes me think that it’s time to rewatch Dazed and Confused though.

10.  Is this finally the year of Paul Thomas Anderson?

This is very, very hard to deny. 2023/4 was finally the year of Christopher Nolan; last year was the year of Sean Baker. Anderson hasn’t even won for a screenplay, something that his contemporary, Quentin Tarantino, has achieved twice despite “being overlooked” in Directing. On the other hand, it would maybe be cooler if Anderson never got his Oscar glory, but it feels like this is his big year.

11.  Which movie from the stupid Cinematic and Box Office Achievement will get a Best Picture nomination?

Sinners is a lock at this point, but I’m not too sure beyond that. Looking just at this list of films, Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good would have been on my list, but both missed a Best Picture nomination here, and I think there’s a good chance both miss at the Oscars despite their prequels getting in. Weapons might get a screenplay nomination, especially if Amy Madigan sneaks into Best Supporting Actress, but I don’t think anything besides Sinners is getting into Best Picture.

12.  Which movies missed out?

This is such a hard thing to answer “objectively”, if there can be any objectivity in Awards Season, so I might just have to answer based on my personal taste. Here are a few films that I really liked or even loved that COULD have gotten in, based on pedigree of cast, filmmaker, etc:

• The Phoenician Scheme, though Benicio Del Toro DID score a nomination for his role as Sensei in One Battle After Another

• Black Bag, which felt criminally underseen and underrated as soon as I saw it

• Train Dreams got a Best Actor nomination, but not Best Picture, though I think/hope that will change as we march towards the Oscars

• Warfare could easily have shown up in Drama

• Materialists is the stuff of Globes past

• Friendship certainly belongs in Musical/Comedy, and remains the hardest I’ve laughed in a theater in a long time

13.  What other questions do I have?

• Why do the Philadelphia Eagles continue to squander talent and potential? Especially in a year where the league feels wide open?

• Why does my dog think he owns my house?

• If my daughter’s first words are “Golden Globes”, how disappointed will I be?

• Why is Richmond, VA continuously incapable of dealing with 2 inches of snowfall? Surely they would learn their lesson at some point?

• Why do I feel attacked by my Spotify Wrapped each year, and why do I keep going back?

• Why do I feel attacked by the fantasy football teams that I draft each year, and why do I keep going back?

• Where on earth did November go?

• Which of these movies will last forever? How important is awards season in determining that?