Oscar Nominations: Trends and Takeaways

The Oscar nominees were announced Thursday morning, which means we’re both in the home stretch of awards campaigning and just beginning at the same time; strap in. I won’t be diving into every nomination, nor every category, but if you want a TL;DR version, I’m your guy (it’s not too long, go read somewhere else). I’ve got some thoughts on this year’s slate, a few key misses, as well as a couple of observations on the way the Oscars have been going lately.

Historical Firsts:

• Sinners broke the record for nominations this morning, with 16 total! This is news! A new category (Best Casting) DID help here, but so did the film’s bold defiance of genre that allowed it to compete across both craft and musical categories. Step aside All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land, there’s a new sheriff in town. Along for the ride were two wonderful surprise nominations: Delroy Lindo in Supporting Actor and Wunmi Mosaku in Supporting Actress – one more for Jack O’Connell is probably me getting greedy.

• Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo have both been steadily working for decades, and both received their first Oscar nominations; sadly, they’re now competing against each other. Stellan’s nomination carries an extra piece of history being the first nominee in this category from an international film.

• Ethan Hawke, a past nominee in Supporting Actor and Screenplay, received his first Best Actor nomination this morning.

• Emma Stone received her SEVENTH Oscar nomination (two production credits included), becoming the youngest woman ever to do so.

The Big Whiffs:

• Wicked: For Good came up empty despite its predecessor being nominated for TEN, yes TEN Oscars last year – including several “above the line” – and winning two. That’s significant, and despite weaker reviews, I would have assumed it would net at least a couple of nominations.

• No Other Choice continues Park Chan-Wook’s recent trend of making films with an impeccable level of craft that are among the most critically well-received each year and getting shut out at the Oscars. Alas.

• I really, really thought Eva Victor had a shot at Screenplay for Sorry, Baby and I’m bummed it’s not here; if it got replaced by Blue Moon, I’ll get over it.

• Wake Up Dead Man, the third Knives Out film, missed out on a Screenplay nomination despite both its predecessors getting one.

• Other films that had a chance, but missed out: The Smashing Machine, Die My Love, Nouvelle Vague, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, Jay Kelly, Hedda

The Underperfomers:

• Hamnet got eight nominations, but a big miss was Paul Mescal in Best Supporting Actor, playing someone you MIGHT know named William Shakespeare; normally, that's worth a nom.

• Similarly, One Battle After Another can’t complain with 13 nominations (just one shy of the erstwhile record), and feels like it’s in the driver’s seat, but Chase Infiniti missed out on Best Actress. I think it would be overreading to say that this movie is somehow vulnerable because of this, but I guess you never know…

• Despite the previous two Avatar films getting Best Picture nods along with a slew of craft awards, Fire and Ash only mustered up Visual Effects and, uh Costumes? Even though the Na’vi are all animated? That’s actually kind of cool.

• It Was Just an Accident got plenty of love, but missed out on some of the biggest categories it was once tabbed for.

• Train Dreams realistically wasn’t going to get much more than this, but I would have loved to see it get much more than this.

The Overperformers:

• F1 is now a Best Picture nominee. Not sure it should be. It’s a lot of fun, but the writing and characters and some of the performances leave a lot to be desired; it’s got sick racing scenes though.

• I’m gonna say it now: I didn’t like Frankenstein at a 9-nomination level.

• Bugonia getting into Best Picture and Screenplay was a bit of a surprise, but Jesse Plemons missing in Best Actor is a shame – I wasn’t crazy about the movie, but both its leads give some of the best performances of the year. Maybe he’s just too good?

Sizing Up the Competition:

• Best Picture: Despite Sinners bringing in a literal record for nominations, this is still One Battle After Another’s Oscar to lose until it starts losing. There’s no prize for second, but I do wonder if all these nominations, and Mescal missing, mean that Sinners is the top competition for One Battle.

• Best Director: see above.

• Best Actor: This is an awesome slate despite Plemons’ absence. Timothee Chalamet won the Globe, Wagner Moura won at Cannes, Leo is Leo and in the presumed Best Picture winner, and though I don’t think the other two are competitive it’s awesome they’re here.

• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley is primed to steamroll her way through the competition, unless Sentimental Value is super strong and we don’t know it yet.

• Best Supporting Actor: What a race! There are two nominees in One Battle who’ve both won before, two beloved actors competing for the first time, and the hot newcomer Jacob Elordi playing Frankenstein’s monster. Really could go any way!

• Best Supporting Actress: Your guess is as good as mine; Teyana Taylor seems to hold the advantage by winning a Golden Globe and being in the presumed Best Picture winner.

Larger Trends and Takes.

• I’m not sure 10 Best Picture nominees is the best thing for the Oscars. If you look at the “craft” categories (Not Best Picture, Screenplay, Directing or Acting), they are almost exclusively dominated by Best Picture nominees, except for Visual Effects. Otherwise, you’re hard pressed to find inspired choices in categories like Score, Editing, Production Design. This leads to top-heavy nominees and, more importantly, fewer films at the Oscars. Once upon a time, Blue Velvet got a Directing nomination, and only a Directing nomination, for David Lynch – wouldn’t that be something!

• Following the Golden Globes, it seemed like this was going to be a foreign film-heavy Oscars; alas, this is not the case. If you’ve read this far and haven’t watched a movie in a different language recently, give it a shot!

• Without my Eagles in the playoffs, this is what I’ve got. And I’ve got it until March 15. Is that too long? I think it might be too long.