The Writers Are On Strike. What Now?

After much fanfare over the last couple of months, the Writer’s Guild of America - WGA for short - began their strike on Tuesday, May 2nd after the deadline for a new contract expired on May 1st. This is the first out-and-out strike in about 15 years; the WGA previously went on strike from November 2007 – February 2008. Thematically, there’s a lot of crossover between what the WGA was seeking in 2007 and what they seek now; it’s not just about more money to keep up with increased studio profits and rising costs of living (not dissimilar to national conversations about minimum wage), but also about adapting compensation models to reflect the changing entertainment landscape as an awful lot has shifted in the last 15 years, as well as increased security against some threats that feel downright existential.

What Happened Last Time?

The main issues that writers were seeking resolution for in 2007 were regarding what’s called the Minimum Basic Agreement contract, which is re-negotiated every three years. In addition to issues of basic pay, this contract creates protections for writers as well as establish rules around residual payment and what kinds of writers can belong in the guild, how they can join, etc. A few key sticking points were around writers getting producing credits thus entitling them to more compensation as well as giving them the chance to be on set for any re-writes, residuals for DVD sales, and residuals or adapted payment for what was then known as “new media”, which is to say content distributed online – nowadays, we just call it streaming.

After 14 weeks of strikes, negotiations, and re-negotiation, WGA West and East members voted to end the strike on February 12, 2008 and return to work. Depending on which estimate you pay attention to, total losses to the entertainment industry fell somewhere between $380 million and $2 billion; quite vague but at the very least nothing to sneeze at. The non-financial effects, however, were what audiences experienced and continued to feel until as late as 2009. Late-night talk show viewership plummeted, and some shows found themselves going on and off the air; awards season shows trudged on without writers to craft monologues; and films that were in production either had to adapt to scripts that were halfway done, and the results led some high-profile blockbusters like Quantum of Solace or Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen to feel half-finished or downright incoherent at worst.

Streaming Economics

Over the last 5 years, streaming has gone from a one-horse race to the dominant form of media consumption. Last year, I wrote a piece about my concerns with streaming in the face of Netflix’s first-ever stock price and membership drop in what felt like the first crack in this industry’s armor. However, there’s been a growing distaste for streaming among talent in Hollywood because of its economics. You may also recall Scarlett Johansson suing Disney for more money after Black Widow was sent to Disney+ instead of theaters, where she would have had the opportunity to earn more through a portion of box office sales. You might also recall Sydney Sweeney, star of HBO’s Euphoria, claiming that she doesn’t make enough to take any time off between her work, which has almost exclusively been streaming projects. Writers, who never get paid like movie stars anyway, share these frustrations. In years past, writing for a hit television show got you access to residual payments just like starring in one did – every time TBS re-runs an episode of Friends, it isn’t just Jennifer Aniston receiving a check, but also writers and other craftspeople.

One of the proposals that the WGA put forth for this unsuccessful contract re-negotiation attempted to address this problem – as streamers become ad-supported, they want access to that some of that revenue the same way that I’m sure actors will. Another of the WGA’s requests was tiered residuals based on viewership, as well as increased base pay. These proposals were rejected without a counter, except for some of the basic pay requests, which did receive counter offers. These frustrations are born out of the bizarre economics of streaming for the studios, whose only source of income right now is through memberships, and yet they’re spending as much as $500 million for a single season of television in some instances, yet clearly running the production as cheaply as possible in others. Ad-supported streaming is on the way, but the return on these investments feels awful hard to prove.

Why all the money talk? Because if studios/streamers only care about the bottom line and burn cash for basically no return as is, why would they consider paying writers more?

A.I. and the Future of Writing

One proposal that was allegedly last on the WGA’s list but nevertheless a concern that’s recently grown in importance is around protecting themselves from being replaced by A.I. such as ChatGPT. The stipulation they put forth, that I’m sure they were hoping to be a layup, was essentially around not letting A.I. learn their styles to be replicated without their credit, preventing A.I. from ever receiving screenwriting credit, and not allowing A.I. to take a first pass at a screenplay before bringing in a writer to do punch-up work. Frankly, the idea that studios would pursue scripts not written by a person, even for the most empty-calorie base level of entertainment, is ghoulish; naturally, the studios rejected the WGA’s proposal without a counter, except to offer an “annual meeting on technology”. Almost every other demand that the WGA has is around payment and guarantees of it, but the fight over this item raises existential questions about the very nature of writing, which directly translates into where our art comes from – would we be alright knowing that it wasn’t made by a human? If you want to take this thought exercise just a bit further, think of recent films using CGI to re-animate dead actors. We may see this issue arise when the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) re-negotiates its contract that is set to expire on June 30.

What Happens Now?

Early reporting suggests that the WGA and the AMPTP (Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers – the studios/streamers) are quite far apart from each other on the key sticking points. While most financial issues around minimum payments and guaranteed work will eventually be resolved through the process of negotiating and compromise – until each side can agree on a number between their two starting positions – I feel that the issues of streaming residuals and protection from the incursion of A.I. will take much longer given their unprecedented nature. Talent across the board needs streaming residuals figured out, and I wouldn’t be surprised if scores of actors join the picket lines during this strike like they did 15 years ago, and they could even launch a strike of their own if similar sticking points emerge when the SAG contract gets re-negotiated as a part of its renewal.

In the meantime, you should consider every major show or motion picture currently in production, even if the scripts are finished, to be in as much jeopardy as the ones currently in development – writers are needed onset to re-work dialogue, help write ADR dialogue dubbed in later once sound mixing is done or to preserve continuity. Late night talk shows and SNL have already suspended production. A few high-profile shows from last year are in production with finished scripts on their second seasons, and I’m a little worried about all of them not having writers around to assist: The Rings of Power plans to continue its expensive production without writers OR showrunners on set; Tony Gilroy continues work on my beloved Andor as a producer only due to contractual obligation, though I’ve heard what could be hearsay that Season 1 didn’t need much rewriting anyway; and The House of the Dragon is set to begin production shortly with showrunner Ryan Condal onset in specifically non-writing duties. On the movie front, I’d worry about impacts to films set to be released after, say, September of this year (including my highly anticipated Dune 2), as well as everything in production or later development. No writers are pitching ideas, or accepting assignments, or on-set. The impacts of this strike will be felt in movie theaters through 2024, which is dangerous for an industry dependent on the increasingly precarious revenue stream of theatrical moviegoing.

How long this will last is a question of attrition. How long can writers go without work? What non-financial compromises will they be willing to make to get paid again? And for the AMPTP, the question is far more mathematical. How long can they afford to suspend production, or put out subpar products? Will they open the door for other talent to start receiving some kind of streaming residuals by acquiescing to the WGA’s demands? On the other hand, they hold leverage that they didn’t previously because of streaming; can they afford to stop or slow making new things if people just want to rewatch The Office all the time? A few days ago, the AMPTP put out a response to the WGA strike and demands, including pricing the total cost of the WGA’s asks at about $100 million, but I’ve seen estimates that run as high as $600 million. Then again, on the second day of the strike, the entertainment industry lost $10 billion in stock value so the squeeze could already be on.