Oscars: The Home Stretch

The Oscars are just around the corner! With less than two weeks to go before the ceremony the last of the “major precursors” are behind us, with the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards having just been televised Sunday night. If last year told us one thing, it’s that momentum matters, but the number of awards a movie is nominated for doesn’t predict how many awards a movie will win. In fact, with the recent expansion of the Academy’s membership, single movies have been dominating both the technical awards and the “major” categories far less often; I think the days of Best Picture winners also winning 6 other awards might truly be behind us. A Best Picture winner can come from anywhere, and momentum is key. As final voting for the Oscars closes March 7th, members of the Academy have had time to study all the nominees, hopefully watch all the damn movies, and now have some big decisions to make.

Who’s got the momentum now? Have the presumed favorites changed? What chaos does Oscar have up his golden sleeve?

Best Picture:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere all at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

• Who Won the BAFTA? All Quiet on the Western Front

• Who Won the CCA? Everything Everywhere all at Once

• Who Won the SAG (Ensemble Award)? Everything Everywhere all at Once

• Who Won the PGA (Producer’s Guild)? Everything Everywhere all at Once

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Oh we’ve got a frontrunner, and it’s working with the same narrative as the 2017 Eagles, which is to say “statistical overdog masquerading as an underdog”, and that can be a powerful thing. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out for the 2022 Eagles, but it’s likely to work out for EEAAO.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Never had a shot: Women Talking, Triangle of Sadness, Avatar: The Way of Water. Never caught awards season steam: Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, Tár. Seems to have lost awards steam: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin.

Best Director:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere all at Once), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Todd Field (Tár), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)

• Who Won the BAFTA? Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

• Who Won the CCA? Daniels, Everything Everywhere

• Who Won the DGA (Directors Guild)? Daniels, Everything Everywhere

• Does It Impact the Oscars? I think for a while the favorite here was Spielberg because, you know, it’s Spielberg. Since then, Daniels racked up a few awards of their own, and then suddenly BAFTA swerved and gave it to Berger (All Quiet), at a ceremony at which Spielberg wasn’t nominated but where Daniels, McDonagh, and Field were. Looks like we’ve got a showdown coming up!

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Even though Todd Field masterfully directed the best film of the year, he is out. I also think you can count McDonagh out here; if he couldn’t get it done at BAFTA, I don’t think he can get it done with Oscar. I don’t think Ostlund ever had a shot, so consider Spielberg playing the role of spoiler on March 12.

Best Actor:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

• Who Won the BAFTA? Austin Butler

• Who Won the CCA? Brendan Fraser

• Who Won the SAG? Brendan Fraser

• Does It Impact the Oscars? It might! The three real threats were Butler, Farrell, and Fraser and that field seems to have narrowed down to two.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Paul Mescal never had a chance, nor did Bill Nighy, but I’m afraid that we’ll have to count out my favorite performance in this category as well, Colin Farrell.

Best Actress:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere all at Once)

• Who Won the BAFTA? Cate Blanchett

• Who Won the CCA? Cate Blanchett

• Who Won the SAG? Michelle Yeoh

• Does It Impact the Oscars? I still think this is Blanchett’s, but the fact that she already has two Oscars and that Michelle Yeoh has the legacy narrative in her favor, which SAG was happy to recognize, might pull out a stunner.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Thanks for playing Michelle Williams, Ana De Armas, and Andrea Riseborough; none of you had a chance.

Best Supporting Actor:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere all at Once).

• Who Won the BAFTA? Barry Keoghan

• Who Won the CCA? Ke Huy Quan

• Who won the SAG? Ke Huy Quan

• Does It Impact the Oscars? From the beginning of this awards season, this was primed to be the only lock for EEAAO, and though this is likely no longer the case Quan has been a juggernaut and BAFTA has been his only serious miss.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I feel conflicted saying count out everyone else, but I think you can probably count out everyone else. Keoghan seems like the only threat due to his BAFTA win, but I don’t imagine him getting enough votes due to splitting with, my favorite performance in the category from Brendan Gleeson.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere all at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere all at Once)

• Who Won the BAFTA? Kerry Condon

• Who Won the CCA? Angela Bassett

• Who Won the SAG? Jamie Lee Curtis

• Does It Impact the Oscars? This race has become far less clear in the time that Bassett took the Globe and the CCA back-to-back, so we’ve got a real toss-up!

• Can We Count Anyone Out? We can firmly count out Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu, though they’ve both got great careers ahead; for my money, this will be a fight between Curtis and Bassett, each vying for career recognition, though Condon could prevail in the event of a split between those two.

Best Original Screenplay:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere all at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

• Who Won the BAFTA? The Banshees of Inisherin

• Who Won the CCA? Everything Everywhere

• Does It Impact the Oscars? It’s messy! The WGA awards are still to be had, so a clearer favorite may re-emerge, but there’s always the possibility that Everything Everywhere only walks away with a couple of awards, one of them being in this category. It’s also fascinating that this category has the exact same nominees as Best Director; I’d be shocked if any nominee won both on March 12.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I feel like this is a two-horse race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere, but I would love a surprise showing from Tár if voters are split between those two. In any case, I think Fabelmans and Triangle are out.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

• Who Won the BAFTA? All Quiet on the Western Front

• Who Won the CCA? Women Talking

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Maybe a little? Women Talking wasn’t nominated at the BAFTAs, so that wasn’t a case of that film losing to All Quiet on the Western Front. All Quiet’s monster performance at the BAFTA awards may signal something, but I’m still expecting the Academy to spread the love when it hands out its hardware which would benefit Women.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I think Living and Top Gun: Maverick – since Rian Johnson was previously nominated for Knives Out, there’s a chance that the Academy could throw some gold his way since he’s a significant figure in Hollywood, but that might be a stretch.