Awards Race Check-In

Awards Check-In. With just two weeks left to go until the Oscars, we got an awards doubleheader on Sunday with the BAFTAs and the Critic’s Choice Awards, what feel to be the last two major bellwethers of the season, occurring on the same day. CODA made a significant splash at the SAG Awards a few weeks ago, but The Power of the Dog remains the presumed favorite for the Academy’s biggest honors.

Who won in the biggest categories this weekend? Does it mean anything for the Oscars? Are there any runaway favorites? My takes and some light prediction work below:

Best Picture:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story.

• Who Won the BAFTA? The Power of the Dog took home Best Film and Belfast took home Best British Film.

• Who Won the CCA? The Power of the Dog

• Does It Impact the Oscars? The doubleheader win confirms that The Power of the Dog is considered the favorite, and while CODA and Belfast feel like the underdogs with the best shot, underdogs they remain.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I think it’s safe to count out Dune, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up (thank God), West Side Story (bummer), and Licorice Pizza (super bummer). Drive My Car, King Richard, CODA, and Belfast all still have enough juice from other awards, including recognition from today’s doubleheader.

Best Director:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

• Who Won the BAFTA? Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

• Who Won the CCA? Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

• Does It Impact the Oscars? We got our third female best director win coming in at the Oscars, and a recognition of a brilliant career that Jane Campion has had along with it - unless too many people are upset with her backhandedly insulting the Williams sisters on Sunday night.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I think you can count out Branagh, Spielberg, and PTA at this point. It is certainly wild to admit that I’m actively counting Spielberg out of Oscar glory, but he’s still Steven Spielberg and he still made one of my favorite movies of the year so he'll be just fine.

Best Actor:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog; Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom!; Will Smith, King Richard; Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Will Smith, King Richard

• Who Won the CCA? Will Smith, King Richard

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Impact as in change? Nah. Impact as in solidify Will Smith’s incoming Oscar win? For sure.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I think we can only really count out Bardem; Garfield won the meaningless Globe, Cumberbatch has scooped up some minor wins here and there and headlines the most nominated movie, and Washington is an Oscars heavyweight playing a Shakespeare character. It seems like it’ll be Smith, but it ain’t over til the Fresh Prince sings.

Best Actress:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos; Kristen Stewart, Spencer.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Joanna Scanlon, After Love

• Who Won the CCA? Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Is Jessica Chastain now the favorite? It sure makes the SAG win feel like less of a blip and more serious, but I still think this race could go anyone’s way between the love for Olivia Colman at the Oscars and Nicole Kidman’s win at the meaningless Golden Globes.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? No. There hasn’t been enough overlap in the nominee pools at the major awards to really rule anyone out, and there’s enough Oscar history in this lineup for this category to still be messy.

Best Supporting Actor:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Ciaran Hinds, Belfast; Troy Kotsur, CODA; Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog; J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos; Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Troy Kotsur, CODA

• Who Won the CCA? Troy Kotsur, CODA

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Two months ago, I would have sworn this was Smit-McPhee’s to lose, and I still prefer his performance, but ever since the SAG Awards Kotsur has steamrolled his way through every milestone. He seems ready to win an Oscar, and all the awards bodies are ready for it too.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? I counted Jesse Plemons out as soon as he was nominated, and I think at this point we can count out Hinds as well.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

• Who Won the CCA? Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

• Does It Impact the Oscars? At this point, the Oscar is already in her hand; she was the frontrunner before and remains the frontrunner today.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Kirsten Dunst and Jessie Buckley – Dench has some Oscar history, and Aunjanue Ellis is paired with the guy who’s probably gonna win.

Best Original Screenplay:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Zach Baylin, King Richard; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

• Who Won the CCA? Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

• Does It Impact the Oscars? Between this and the Golden Globes, Belfast seems to be more of the favorite than MY favorite of the year, Licorice Pizza, but this race is still up in the air – especially considering that Licorice Pizza’s win in this category is paired with its win for Best Comedy at the CCA. I think we’re headed for a showdown on Oscar night.

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Adam McKay. To win Best Picture, King Richard would need this category and to win Best Foreign Film The Worst Person in the World needs this category and there's still an outside chance of either of these things happening. Fortunately, Don’t Look Up doesn’t seem to be winning anything.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Who’s Up for the Oscar? Sian Heder, CODA; Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car; Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth, and Denis Villeneuve, Dune; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.

• Who Won the BAFTA? Sian Heder, CODA

• Who Won the CCA? Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

• Does It Impact the Oscars? In my mind, this award is now linked to the Best Picture race and the edge is still The Power of the Dog’s. Will this edge hold?

• Can We Count Anyone Out? Dune, but only Dune. Everyone else needs this for Best Picture – and has a better chance of winning it – except for The Lost Daughter, who might get recognized in this category alone.